Bulletin Number 3

Hello, Chris at Mastodon C here – thanks for taking interest in the Witan project!

What Witan will help you do

If you are coming across Witan for the first time, it is a city modelling application/platform being developed in partnership between the GLA and a cloud technology company called Mastodon C. The first iteration of Witan aims to deliver demographic projections; a fundamental element of local authority planning.

This initial version is quite simple – it will allow each user to upload development data, run models and download projections. While future versions will allow sharing within the platform, data and projections will be private to the users that entered or generated them, therefore sharing with colleagues will be the responsibility of users, via email.

Know anyone who might be interested?

If there is someone else in your institution that would benefit from access to the platform then we’d love to hear from them. They can join the user group online here, or send an email to witan@mastodonc.com where one of our team will add them to the user group – you don’t need a google account to sign up.

What to expect – a sneak peek

In this bulletin we will give a preview of the alpha platform – read on to get an idea of what to expect when you first use it:

This is an open source project and we’re working in the open – you can see the current user guide online here, along with the code as we write it.

This is the Witan login screen. Enter the details you’ve been provided with and it should redirect you to the Dashboard.

 

You can update or view existing demographic projections by double-clicking them. You can also access earlier versions of a projection by using the small plus symbol at the start of each row. To create a new Projection, click the large green button, with the white plus, in the top-right.

 

Choose a name and enter a description for the Projection. You will be able to create a projection based on a range of models, each of which requires one or more ‘properties’ to be filled out. Clicking ‘Create’ will save the Projection and take you to the Projection View.

 

 

We are aiming for the modelling process to be intuitive but very simple at this stage, so we’ve broken into three parts: inputs, model and outputs. Each of these has an individual page and you can navigate between the pages using the large gray buttons at the top.

 

On the inputs page, you will be able to upload development data or choose from previously uploaded development data.

 

 

The model page shows progress of the modelling process and gives more detail on the model you have chosen to run. Input data, models and projections will all be versioned – meaning that you will always be able to return to earlier versions.

Once the model has finished running, the population projections are available to download on the outputs page.

While Witan is currently relatively simple, each week, we release new updates and improvements – if you’ve read this far, we’d like to talk to you, and give you a chance to try it out before we go live, and see which new features are the most useful to you.

If you like the sound of this, you book a time slot with us to try it out, at the link below:

https://calendly.com/mastodonc-chris/

Alternatively you can send an email to witan@mastodonc.com saying when you’d be free to try it out – we’ll follow up to book a slot to learn as much as we can from you, to make Witan as useful to you as humanly possible.

Recruiting for users to try out Witan prototypes in December

Hi there,

Chris here again – I mentioned earlier that we’re recruiting for users to try out some of the prototypes we’re building for part of Witan.

Each week, we use the feedback from these sessions to work out which parts of the application to improve next.

We’ve been keeping a few time-slots free, so if you have a spare hour in December or January, we’d love to hear from you.

What to expect

At the end of this email is a link where you can book a slot in December or January to try out one of our prototypes.

Once we have confirmed a time with you, we’ll either book a remote screen sharing session with you, or arrange an in-person session, where we’ll present a prototype to you, and usually set you a couple of tasks to try out.

 

We record these sessions, and playback the videos to our development team to highlight the issues we’ve found. We use these sessions help us catch usability issues early, or make copy clearer, or help think through features to make the platform more useful.

 

It’s important at this point to realise we’re testing the prototype, not you, and there is literally nothing you can do wrong in this session.

How to get involved

If you’d like to try out one of our prototypes and you have a spare hour, the fastest way is to visit the link below, and choose an available slot that suits you.

https://calendly.com/mastodonc-chris/

If you can’t visit the site above

If your IT policies prevent you visiting the link above, you can book a slot by sending an email to witan@mastodonc.com, and listing 3 or more times that work well for you.

We’re looking forward to hearing from you!

Bulletin Number 2

Models available at launch

Housing-linked local authority projection models

Both of the GLA’s current housing-linked projection models will be available at launch (the DCLG-based and Capped AHS).  These models are intended to help users to understand how their populations may change in the future under particular development and demographic scenarios.  Outputs are typically used for infrastructure and resource planning.

The models output projected population based on the user’s choice of development trajectory and demographic scenario.  At launch the demographic scenarios available will be limited to low/standard/high fertility assumptions, but we’ll be looking to add more to meet user needs as the platform develops. After you choose input data and what model you want to use, you will be able to download a csv (which you can open in Excel) with the detailed projection.

The system will be ready-populated with a set of default development assumptions. Users will be able to add development scenarios using templates that will be provided in the system.

Trend-based projections

While users will be unable to generate their own trend-based projections, the results of a range of scenarios will be included for use in the system.

 Ward-level projection model

The platform will include an implementation of the GLA’s ward-level projection model.  Users will be able to generate a consistent set of ward-level population outputs for a given borough-level projection.  As with the borough housing-linked models, users can choose between using existing development trajectories derived from the LDD and SHLAA or add their own development scenarios.

More information about the GLA’s projection models can be found in this technical note.

Working with the GLA

In previous years the GLA has produced projection variants for London local authorities based on their choice of housing trajectory.  The GLA normally invites local authorities to provide it with housing trajectory data and it then produces projections which it sends back to each authority.  This way of working is very resource-intensive for the GLA and consequently limits the number of projections it is able to provide to users.

The new Witan interface opens up a new way of working for the GLA and local authorities.  Users will be able to directly generate new projections on demand without having to rely on the GLA to process the data.  This will allow local authorities to explore a range of scenarios in ways that weren’t possible before.

The Witan interface is intended to replace the existing service model of local authorities providing development data and the GLA returning projections.  As such, the GLA will not be requesting development data from local authorities this year.  While it will no longer be producing bespoke projections for local authorities, the Demography Team will still provide advice and support to users, while ensuring that the models and outputs meet the GLA’s specifications.

For local authorities who subscribe to the GLA’s roll projection service, users can choose one or more population projections that they have generated using the Witan platform to form the basis for roll projections produced by the GLA.  The long term goal is for the roll projection models to also be moved onto the Witan platform to give users full control over this aspect of their projections also.

Further development of the interface

Development of the platform will continue beyond the initial launch date. There are a number of refinements being considered and we are keen to receive feedback to help guide our prioritisation.  These possible refinements include:

• Improved modelling of non-conventional housing
• Adding household projection outputs
• Allowing users to specify the characteristics of new developments
• Adding MSOA level projection outputs
• Developing small-area household outputs
• Adding alternative household formation scenarios
• Increasing the number of demographic scenarios available

Ben Corr, Demography Manager at the Greater London Authority

demography@london.gov.uk

Sunny Townsend, Modeller / Data Scientist at Mastodon C

witan@mastodonc.com

Bulletin Number 1

As some of you will know, the GLA and Mastodon C are working together to develop Witan, a city modelling platform, the first part of which will be demographic projections and is targeted at individuals working in borough councils who acquire these projections from the GLA.

We have been working hard over the last 3 months to deliver the platform but still need a bit more time to get things fully functional, therefore we are scheduling the launch on 15th January 2016. This will take place electronically so please sign up to join the Witan user mailing list here to find out more about Witan.

As a member of the Witan user group you will get access to a user group forum and be notified of the launch and future developments.

Also, if you’re interested in seeing the rough cut of the platform, we’re speaking to users each week, and we’re looking for more volunteers to join our alpha over the coming weeks.

Contact witan@mastodonc.com for more details and to book your slot.

Mastodon C will attend the Population Statistics User Group meeting at the GLA, 2 weeks after the launch on 29th January 2016, where there will be a run-through of the platform and the chance to attend a clinic afterwards to help with any questions you may have. We look forward to seeing you there.

In the coming weeks before the launch we’ll give you more details on the models available in the system, a roadmap of future features and a sneak preview of the Witan platform.